Predictions for off-off year election in USA

We are about a month out from polling day in two major Governor races in New Jersey and Virginia, and the result could have a serious effect on the Obama Presidency, and give us an idea on the extent of any Republican gains in next year's mid-term elections.

Obviously there are still four weeks of serious campaigning, and four weeks worth of events to get through (not least will be the position of the health care and cap-and-trade legislation in the House and Senate), but where would be the fun in predictions if we didn't do them so far out?

Virginia - Likely Republican gain: Looking at the polls (RCP has an average of 7.5% GOP lead), the Republican candidate (McDonnell) appears to be increasing his lead and is by far the favourite to win without some kind of serious game-changer. Also, as a rule the party who holds the White House loses the Virginian Governor's mansion. The state Democratic Party appears split over their candidate (Deeds), particularly over his position on gun control. Not only this, but Republicans finally seem to have reconnected with the campaign strategy that worked for them in previous elections - it's the economy stupid (and before you tell me so, I know the phrase is from Clinton ;-) ). Previous elections the GOP has often run hard on social issues that do not expand their support, but merely excite the base. This turned off independents and meant that when the Democrats put up someone who could bring out independents (*cough* Obama *cough*), the Republicans would be swamped. But in Virginia McDonnell is running a bread and butter campaign. While he is unashamedly socially conservative, he is not making social issues a major part of his campaign. And voters in more liberal Northern Virginia appear to be getting on board with his message.

New Jersey - Toss-up: I was going to put Democrat Hold, but at the last minute I decided to make it a Toss-up. Why? Well, John Corzaine (sitting governor) is currently polling about 40%, which is so awful for an incumbent that I cannot in good conscience give it to the Dems. But why, I hear you ask, do you not give it to the GOP? Simply because the polls are narrowing, and Republican hopes in this state have been dashed too many times where the Republican has appeared to have a narrow lead and ended up losing the race.

What do these races mean? Well, everything and nothing. At the end of the day, both races are for state rather than federal offices. Both will be fought on local issues (for example, had Corzine not been in charge of the state during a period of extreme budgetary crisis and tax increases, it is difficult to imagine him being seriously in danger). However, were both races to go to the Republicans it could not help but have an effect on politics in Washington. If Virginia falls to the GOP, centrist Democrats who will be fighting to hold their seats next year will start feeling even more worried about re-election. If the healthcare bill has not already been passed, centrists may back away from supporting a bill with a 'public' option, fearing the effect this will have on their numbers. In the House this will matter little (since the centrist 'Blue Dogs' do not have enough members to block legislation), but in the Senate it could lead to a bill dying on the Senate floor.

Keep an eye out!