Ireland to go to the polls

Tomorrow is a big day. Ireland will vote again on the Lisbon Treaty and the result is expected to be a 'Yes' to the treaty. However, the result is still up in the air, and will probably come down to turnout. The Taoseich (Prime Minister) is hugely unpopular, and his support for Lisbon could potentially lead to some Irish voting against it in order to punish the Government (the same way many French opposed the European Union Constitution due to opposition to President Chirac's economic policy).

However, the 'Yes' campaign is heavily favoured, and this could lead to a very interesting Conservative conference conundrum. The British Parliament has already backed the Lisbon Treaty (over the opposition of the Tories - who claim there should be a referendum), and the only two countries who still have to ratify the treaty are Ireland, Poland and the Czech Republic. Poland is set to ratify sometime in the near future, Ireland votes tomorrow, and only the Czech's will be left. The pressure on the Czech's will be vast, and most expect the Government to cave to this pressure sometime in the next four months. The Conservative Party policy on the issue is that they will give the people of Britain a vote on the Lisbon Treaty. However, if the three remaining countries ratify the treaty will come into force. And it would be impossible for Britain to offer a referendum on a treaty that has come into force.

The Conservatives have said that if the treaty is ratified they 'will not let matters rest'. It may well be that come Monday (first day of conference) David Cameron and the rest of the party may have to explain to some very angry Euro-sceptic delegates exactly what that means.