Ireland vote 'Yes' on Lisbon

Now the Conservatives have a real 'Europe' problem. Yesterday I sat in a room with a VERY large number of people who bayed in full-throated approval whenever one of the speakers mentioned leaving the European Union, or demanding a referendum on Lisbon no matter it's status.

David Cameron has a real problem. If he were to try to alter the Lisbon Treaty once it came into force (or repeal Britain's acceptance of it), the result for the British economy could be cataclysmic - the loss of confidence in the Sterling and the likely inability of the Government to sell gilts could put the economy into a serious tailspin - and the European Union would be less than keen to help Britain out of the hole it dug itself.

However, if Cameron backs off the hard line on Europe he could have some trouble holding some of the more Eurosceptic elements together within the party, which could lead to his having the same troubles that John Major had over Europe. And if Nigel Farage (from UK Independence Party) wins a seat in Westminter, there would be a vehicle for these disaffected Tories to jump to.

However, there is still a long way to go before anyone has to worry about that. Warsaw and Prague still have to ratify (which they probably will before a General Election can be held), and much will depend on the election result and the size (if any) of a Conservative majority.