What to look for in Norwich North

Right, today is the big day. Norwich North is at the polls, deciding on their new Member of Parliament. The big contenders are Chloe Smith (Conservative), Chris Ostrowski (Labour) and April Pond (Liberal Democrat), although of course there are a number of other candidates from the Greens, BNP, UKIP and a couple of Independents (such as Craig Murray, running on a 'Put an Honest Man in Parliament' ticket).

First big thing to keep an eye on is the turnout. It won't be enough for the Tories to win. If they are going to hold the seat next election (not to mention be able to spin the result as a major victory) they need the turnout to be reasonably close to that from the General Election.
Why? Because if it isn't it will indicate either that Labour voters decided to stay home, rather than come out and vote for a different party, or that swinging Tory voters are not excited enough by David Cameron and the campaign to come out and cast a vote. To put it another way, a low turnout shows a real lack of energy about any of the major parties, which means that either Labour or the Tories could swing those unenergised voters onto their side before the General Election. However, a high turnout will indicate that voters who happily went into the polling booth and cast a vote for Labour since 1997 have actively decided to cast their vote for another party. And that is VERY bad news for Labour.

Second thing is the scale of the Tory victory (assuming there is one, which everyone appears to be doing). Let's not forget (as many media are doing) the Conservative Party needs a massive swing to even take the seat, let alone get a reasonable majority out of it. The polls are pretty all over the place (although they all project a Tory win). For example, the Daily Telegraph is saying that Labour could get as low as 8% of the vote (well, they would, wouldn't they?), the Liberal Democrats say it is a Lib Dem-Tory race and that Labour will come in third (Con 32% - LD 24% - L 20% - Green 11%), while other projections have the Tories well ahead.
I am not so sure. It is possible that the Tories could romp home with a swing similar to that from the Crewe and Nantwich by-election last year. However, I am expecting a more narrow victory for the Tories. Crewe and Nantwich was held during the outrage over the Government's attempts to abolish the lowest tax rate. This one is being held with a more 'a plague on all your houses' view from the public. It could affect all the major parties, or just Labour, or just Labour and the Tories. Anything could happen. That is why by-elections are so exciting!

However, for what it is worth, I'm expecting a Tory victory with a majority between 1000 and 3000 with a turnout a little down (but not a long way down) on the last General Election result.