Excitement about Norwich North

So, I am back, refreshed, after a couple of weeks holiday. And I'm highly excited about the upcoming by-election in Norwich North. This by-election will set the tone for the next month at least, and could have a very serious effect on one party (and you might be surprised by which one it is!).

First the background. Norwich North is a seat that was once a safe as houses Labour seat (in the 1950's and 60's the seat returned Labour with 60% of the vote) that has moved towards being more contestable. With the rise of the Liberals and the Liberal Democrats in the 1970's and 80's the seat has become much more marginal. With the help of the SDP/Liberals in in 1983, it fell to the Conservatives with an almost offensively large swing. The Tories then held it until their own defeat in 1997, and Labour has held the seat safely since. Ian Gibson, the former MP, was deeply embroiled in the expenses saga, and was barred from standing in the seat under the Labour banner in the next election by the Labour disciplinary panel. In response he resigned his seat and triggered this by-election. He will not stand as an independent.

So, Labour currently holds the seat with a majority of 5459. However, this is a by-election the Tories must win. They have no other option. Norwich North is symptomatic of the seats that the Tories need to win on election night in order to win an overall majority. And things almost cannot get better for the Tories than this, with a government seemingly without a plan or agenda, and an almost 20% advantage in opinion polls. Allegedly, Labour has given up, but the Tories must not be over-confident. And, to be fair, so far they have been anything but. Buses of supporters and party members have been bused in from all over the South East to help the hugely competent Conservative candidate, Chloe Smith. And, judging on what one hears, she seems set to be the next MP for Norwich North, and provide a huge fillip to the party faithful.

However, if the Tories do manage to lose, it will be a serious blow. First, it will show that they still aren't able to reach into Labour's more urban support bases. If a defeat in Norwich were magnified across the areas the Tories need to win, then they would be hard pressed to be the biggest party, let alone hold an overall majority. Second, it would entirely upset the seeming triumphal processional that seems to be winding its way towards election day.

Two other things to watch out for. The result for the Liberal Democrats will be highly interesting. They are historically the party that people turn to in order to blow off steam at the party in power in by-elections. The Lib Dems could make a serious push for the seat, and this could see Labour pushed into third. If the Lib Dems do not increase their share of the vote by a significant amount, it could lead to some spectulation about the position of their leader, Nick Clegg - especially since at the time of the leadership election the campaign of Chris Huhne, his opponent, wrote a memo describing Mr Clegg as 'Calamity Clegg'.
The other point of interest might be the effect a really serious defeat might have on Labour. A second place finish, within a five percentage points, is probably what many in Labour might expect. If the Lib Dems could force themselves into second (which would probably require them to double their share of the vote) and consign Labour to third place, it may start some backbenchers in Labour worrying about the safety of their seats - even reasonably safe ones.

So, the short version is:

Conservatives - Best result: They win by anything more 5%, and the Labour is pushed into third
Acceptable result: They win by any margain - a swing of about 8.3%
Bad result: They lose

Labour - Best result: They somehow manage to win
Acceptable result: They lose by a small amounht
Bad result: They lose by a huge amount (more than 9%) or are pushed into third

Liberal Democrats - Best result: Well, obviously the best result is to win, but that is so unlikely, I will say it is to get second place
Acceptable result: Third place with an increase of the vote - at least 20%
Bad result: No real increase in the vote