Japan's Obama moment - in more ways than one

The voters of Japan have spoken, and as expected they have unceremoniously thrown the 'natural party of government', the Liberal Democratic Party (oh that the Lib Dems in Britain could aspire to such a title!) out on it's ear. In a complete switch, the LDP lost 177 seats (and their allies the New Komeito Party lost another 10), while the Democratic Party of Japan gained 195 seats to win 308, the largest number of seats held by any single party in more than 35 years. In this election we can see parallels with the United States Presidential election that swept Obama to power.


Both ran more on opposition to previous administration and a message of 'change' than on a set of policy goals. Although both Obama and Hatoyama (DJP leader and soon to be Prime Minister) laid out policy manifestos, both spent most of their time on the hustings attacking the previous government, and promising broad, incontestable goals like 'change' and 'love'. This allowed both to get into office with huge positive support from the public. However, Obama at least is now discovering the pitfalls of not putting your specific policy goals front and forward during the campaign - you discover that the public has not bothered to read your policy manifesto and suddenly is not willing to support you on major policy planks.


Also, both have come into power with almost unattainable expectations from the public. Many in Japan expect the new government (which lacks many who have served in government previously) to swiftly put the economy to rights and solve many of the underlying problems that the LDP has failed to deal with in the last ten years. If Hatoyama's government fails to live up to expectations, the DJP may find the swing against them all the stronger because the public believed so much in them when they started. Obama has haemorrhaged support since taking office since he has failed to fulfil people's expectations (expectations which were, to be fair, completely unrealistic).



Finally, neither Obama nor Hatoyama have much time to get their programmes in place before they are forced to face voters again - and neither will face the voters directly in off-year elections. Both Obama and Hatoyama face off-year elections next year which will be taken both as a measure of their continuing public support, and could also have a direct impact on their ability to pass their agenda. Hatoyama faces elections for the upper house of the Japanese Parliament next year. Currently the DJP and their allies hold a narrow majority, and thanks to the electoral system the LDP are unlikely to gain a majority (fewer seats are up for re-election next year than at the previous election), but the DJP could lose their control over the house, potentially leading to gridlock. In America Obama indirectly faces the people twice in the next two years. This year there are two hotly contested governor races in New Jersey and Virginia (more on them later), and next year are the mid-term elections, which could see the Republicans regain control of the House of Representatives (but almost certainly not the Senate). Democrats losing big next year would be seen both as a rejection of Obama's policies (as Clinton's massive defeat in 1994 was a result of voter disapproval of his policies on health care and social issues) and also make it immensely difficult for Obama to get his agenda through. Obviously a year is almost a lifetime in politics, and anything could happen in the interim, but both governments have (and will have to in the DJP's case) hit the ground running to pass laws before facing the voters again.