Well, it's starting to become official now. The Labour Party has suffered one of it's worst defeats since year dot in the elections this week. For those who don't consider that British local political results are the most interesting thing they can find on the internet, a quick recap of results from last week:
Labour suffered a haemorrhage of support across England. In County Council elections (which, it must be said, does not include most major urban areas), Labour lost every single council they held. Labour lost almost 300 councillors, and now have fewer than 200 seats across all county councils in England. Bugger. If you take the vote and apply it to Britain as a whole, Labour would receive 23%, behind both the Tories and Liberal Democrats. And if those numbers were the same at a General Election (which they won't be), the Tories would win with an overall majority of 30.
So, that was the Friday results. Now the European polls are coming in, and it is truly horrifying to watch. Labour has slumped across the United Kingdom. Labour looks set to get third place in the European polls behind the Tories and the United Kingdom Independence Party. With 16% of the vote. Yes, nationwide Labour is going to garner about 16% of the vote. Last election (five years ago - which, I might remind you, was in 2004 during the major debates over the Iraq War) Labour got 23%, and all the pundits said that it could get no worse. Well, it has certainly got worse.
But more worrying (for Labour) is the places where they are losing the votes. First they have lost Wales. For the first time since 1918 (and the first time ever to the Conservatives), Labour has not been the biggest party in a Welsh election. They lost 12% from their 2004 result in Wales, while the Tories gained just enough to propel them into first place. Some are blaming it on the expenses scandal, but to me it seems unlikely that Welsh voters would vote against Labour candidates for their expenses scandals while at the same time rewarding Conservatives who have been caught spending public money cleaning the moat on their castle or building duck houses. They are also losing a huge amount of support in the industrial north. They dropped about 9% in Yorkshire and Humber, and something close to it in the Midlands. If a General Election were held and Labour lost anything close to the votes they have lost in Wales, Scotland and the north, the Tories would win a large majority.
The thing that concerns me even more is the drift from Labour to the neo-fascist British National Party. In strong industrial Labour areas (especially in the north of England) such as Barnsley have turned to the BNP in a big way. The BNP has won at least one European seat, and may be in line to win one more (it is 1am and we are still waiting for the results from the North-East).
Obviously 1am is not really the best time for analysis, however, some thoughts are:
1) Labour has taken a hammering. There is no two ways about it. It has been possibly the worst result by any major party in polls in British political history (at least since the devastation of the Liberals in the 1920's). They have fallen to under 20% of the vote, and were it not for the weaknesses of the Liberal Democrats they could easily be fourth.
2) Labour cannot simply blame this on being a sitting government (often Euro elections are used to as a barometer of national government popularity). In many countries (including France, Poland and Italy) the incumbent government has actually had increased support. The one possible argument that Labour might have is that the centre-left has been pummelled across Europe, which is hugely ironic considering the financial crisis (and recession is often when voters prefer the centre-left)
3) The defeats of centre-left candidates across much (although not all) of Europe shows people claiming the 'free market/capitalism is dead' are grossly over-exaggerating. Demands for increased fiscal stimulus from socialist parties have been met with at best ambivalence by European voters. It appears that those who want a radical solution to the financial crisis have thrown their support behind the extreme parties of either the far right or far left.
I will make an effort to write more tomorrow, especially about the effect on Gordon Brown's leadership of the Labour Party...
OK, I was going to bed, but two results have come in that are interesting, both from the South. First, Labour lost their one MEP in the Southwest, losing it to the Liberal Democrats. Second is that the vote just came in from the South East (the most populous region), and Labour managed to get 8% of the vote. I think it might be very hard to sleep for Mr Brown...
Labour suffered a haemorrhage of support across England. In County Council elections (which, it must be said, does not include most major urban areas), Labour lost every single council they held. Labour lost almost 300 councillors, and now have fewer than 200 seats across all county councils in England. Bugger. If you take the vote and apply it to Britain as a whole, Labour would receive 23%, behind both the Tories and Liberal Democrats. And if those numbers were the same at a General Election (which they won't be), the Tories would win with an overall majority of 30.
So, that was the Friday results. Now the European polls are coming in, and it is truly horrifying to watch. Labour has slumped across the United Kingdom. Labour looks set to get third place in the European polls behind the Tories and the United Kingdom Independence Party. With 16% of the vote. Yes, nationwide Labour is going to garner about 16% of the vote. Last election (five years ago - which, I might remind you, was in 2004 during the major debates over the Iraq War) Labour got 23%, and all the pundits said that it could get no worse. Well, it has certainly got worse.
But more worrying (for Labour) is the places where they are losing the votes. First they have lost Wales. For the first time since 1918 (and the first time ever to the Conservatives), Labour has not been the biggest party in a Welsh election. They lost 12% from their 2004 result in Wales, while the Tories gained just enough to propel them into first place. Some are blaming it on the expenses scandal, but to me it seems unlikely that Welsh voters would vote against Labour candidates for their expenses scandals while at the same time rewarding Conservatives who have been caught spending public money cleaning the moat on their castle or building duck houses. They are also losing a huge amount of support in the industrial north. They dropped about 9% in Yorkshire and Humber, and something close to it in the Midlands. If a General Election were held and Labour lost anything close to the votes they have lost in Wales, Scotland and the north, the Tories would win a large majority.
The thing that concerns me even more is the drift from Labour to the neo-fascist British National Party. In strong industrial Labour areas (especially in the north of England) such as Barnsley have turned to the BNP in a big way. The BNP has won at least one European seat, and may be in line to win one more (it is 1am and we are still waiting for the results from the North-East).
Obviously 1am is not really the best time for analysis, however, some thoughts are:
1) Labour has taken a hammering. There is no two ways about it. It has been possibly the worst result by any major party in polls in British political history (at least since the devastation of the Liberals in the 1920's). They have fallen to under 20% of the vote, and were it not for the weaknesses of the Liberal Democrats they could easily be fourth.
2) Labour cannot simply blame this on being a sitting government (often Euro elections are used to as a barometer of national government popularity). In many countries (including France, Poland and Italy) the incumbent government has actually had increased support. The one possible argument that Labour might have is that the centre-left has been pummelled across Europe, which is hugely ironic considering the financial crisis (and recession is often when voters prefer the centre-left)
3) The defeats of centre-left candidates across much (although not all) of Europe shows people claiming the 'free market/capitalism is dead' are grossly over-exaggerating. Demands for increased fiscal stimulus from socialist parties have been met with at best ambivalence by European voters. It appears that those who want a radical solution to the financial crisis have thrown their support behind the extreme parties of either the far right or far left.
I will make an effort to write more tomorrow, especially about the effect on Gordon Brown's leadership of the Labour Party...
OK, I was going to bed, but two results have come in that are interesting, both from the South. First, Labour lost their one MEP in the Southwest, losing it to the Liberal Democrats. Second is that the vote just came in from the South East (the most populous region), and Labour managed to get 8% of the vote. I think it might be very hard to sleep for Mr Brown...
No comments:
Post a Comment