What are the chances of a hung Parliament? And what would it mean?

There has been much wailing and gnashing of teeth (or, alternatively, cheering and... not gnashing of teeth) over the Ipsos/Mori poll released on Sunday in the Observer claiming that there has been a six-point swing back to Labour, and they now are only six points behind the Tories. If those results were repeated on election day (with a uniform swing), then the Conservatives would have the most seats (16 seats over Labour), but would be 30 seats short of a majority.

There are a number of reasons why I believe this prediction is wrong:
1) The poll appears to be an outlier. There is no reason to doubt Mori's fieldwork - they have been a respected pollster for years - but the poll has been contradicted by polls before and after it was released. A ComRes poll had the Tories up by 14, and an Angus Reid poll released on Monday had the Conservatives leading by 17 (and Labour and the Lib Dems fighting for second place).
2) There has been some anecdotal evidence that the a part of the increase in Labour's support has come from an increase in their supporters likelihood to vote, rather than a swing from the Tories. Mori, unlike other polling companies, only use people who are 100% certain they will vote. Previously Labour voters have been much less inclined to vote than supporters of other parties. In the aftermath of the Tory refusal to have a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, there are likely to be a number of Eurosceptic Tories who will tell the pollster they are not sure if they will vote, or that they will vote UKIP, but will vote Tory on election day. Also, the financial crisis has made Labour voters more inclined to vote than previously. However (and this is a BIG however), a lot of this support is in safe Labour seats, rather than marginals. Gordon Brown's government is more popular in Labour heartlands than in the marginal districts in the South and Midlands. Therefore it is very likely that an increase of support would increase majorities in the North and Scotland, while not helping them hold seats in the South and Midlands.
3) The belief that the Tories couldn't win an overall majority on these numbers is based on previous election results that appeared to show an inbuilt advantage for Labour. However, while there is an inbuilt advantage to Labour, it has been exaggerated by tactical voting during the past three elections. Why? Because people in a lot of constituencies were not voting for Labour, but AGAINST the Tories. Therefore, tactical voting meant that Liberal Democrats voted Labour in some seats, and Labour supporters voted Lib Dem in others, in order to keep the Conservatives out. For example, exit polling showed that one in ten Labour voters in the 2005 election voted Labour as a second choice. Next election it is Labour that is the disliked party. Most tactical voting will be based on keeping out a Labour candidate, rather than a Tory. This could see some big swings in some unexpected seats - and maybe some surprising Liberal Democrat victories.

However, it is of course possible that the polls could narrow to the point that a hung parliament occurs. What then? There have been some commentators who have claimed this would be a disaster for democracy. I am not so sure. In the aftermath of the expenses scandal, a hung parliament that meant power lay less in the hands of the government and more in the hands of backbenchers would be beneficial for Parliament as an institution. Each individual MP would have a lot more power in a closely divided House than one with a huge majority either way.

Others have said that a hung parliament would lead to a coalition government and a lot of cabinet seats for either Liberal Democrats or Nationalist parties (and the Northern Ireland parties). Well, looking at Canada, which has had hung Parliaments for the past five years. we have seen minority governments, rather than coalitions. While I certainly do not want to see the same results as Canada (three elections in five years, and probably another one in the next 18 months), it does show that a hung parliament can lead to a minority government.

But, a hung parliament would also be a disaster for government in Britain. A hung parliament, while handing more power to Parliament, would prevent any party from being able to introduce the necessary measures to deal with the financial crisis. Large necessary budget cuts would be opposed. Therefore, while I expect and hope for a Conservative victory, I agree with Ken Clarke that 'a Labour majority would be better than a hung parliament'.