Will the Scottish Government fall?

As I write, the Scottish Justice Minister in the devolved Holyrood Assembly is defending his decision to release the convicted Libyan Lockerbie Bomber. It appears that every other party is opposed to the decision, which means there is a serious question over the long-term stability of the Scottish National Party executive. The SNP is a minority government and requires the other parties in order to hold a majority. Should the Conservative Party, Liberal Democrats and Labour (all of whom oppose the decision) vote to defeat the SNP government in a motion of confidence, the First Minister Alex Salmond will be compelled to resign.
So, what are the chances? Well, not all that great, in my opinion. Firstly, although the three opposition parties oppose the decision to release al-Megrahi, it is difficult to imagine the Conservatives would wish to bring down an SNP government in order to replace it with a Labour-led one.
Secondly, again keeping with the Conservatives, there appear to be attempts by the British Tories to create an anti-Labour alliance with the SNP in the run-up to the General Election (in order to have a working relationship assuming the Tories win the next election). This means that David Cameron (not that he has any control over Scottish MSP's) will likely oppose any efforts to bring the government down.
Also, the opposition parties in Holyrood may feel concerned that attempts to bring down the SNP executive will be viewed by voters as playing partisan politics with an issue as sensitive as the Lockerbie bombing.

While the defeat of the SNP executive is more unlikely than likely, this does not mean there will not be consequences for that party. This incident makes it highly unlikely that the SNP will be able to win the Glasgow North-East by-election (which was always going to require a massive swing against the Labour party). It also means that the SNP has finally lost (for good) it's very long honeymoon with the Scottish electorate. And the big reason behind this is that the Westminster Government has remained silent over the issue. Gordon Brown (and I never thought I'd right this) has made a very good tactical decision. Were the UK Government to comment on the issue, the SNP would have been able to return to its usual tactic of bashing the Westminster government. By remaining silent, the UK Government has prevented this happening and have compelled the SNP to take full responsibility.