Sunday, 10 January 2010
Thursday, 7 January 2010
If ever a plot was doomed to fail...
Yes, I know I am very late to the party on the 'Snowstorm Plot' against Gordon Brown launched by Patricia Hewitt and Geoff Hoon yesterday. But frankly, in my opinion there was never any chance of this plot resulting in a change of leader. Why? Well, firstly Gordon Brown had just had probably his best performance in PMQ's in a long time, effectively swatting away questions from both Tories and Lib Dems, and even getting in a few very good lines (Cameron did too, especially his line on the relationship between PM and Chancellor after Brown teased him on the Tory marriage policy "At least when I lean in and say 'I love you, darling', I really mean it!" Oh how they rolled in the aisles in the Commons!). After a performance like that, many Labour MP's might be forgiven for thinking that PM Brown will perform better on the hustings than some people believe - especially after a rash of op-ed articles wondering if people will prefer a disliked but 'tried and tested' option over Cameron. S
o there was none of the immediacy for a change that there might have been if the PM had been destroyed by Cameron at the Dispatch Box. Secondly is the improvement in some economic figures, which Labour will be spinning for all they are worth as being a vindication of Labour policy.
And finally there is still no-one in a position to take over the party without a divisive leadership contest. Alan Johnson perhaps could, although his credentials have been burned a little from his firing of a Government scientific advisor last year. One of the Milliband's could, but neither of them are really well known enough. But the most important fact that because there is not one clear challenger, none of the senior cabinet figures want to bring Brown down, based on the old proverb that 'he who wields the knife never wears the crown' - just ask Michael Hesseltine!
All the plotters have done is to undermine the good work the party has done putting the boot into the Tories since the Christmas break. Far from putting the issue to rest, the plotters have managed to make sure the leadership story continues for another week. Stupid.
o there was none of the immediacy for a change that there might have been if the PM had been destroyed by Cameron at the Dispatch Box. Secondly is the improvement in some economic figures, which Labour will be spinning for all they are worth as being a vindication of Labour policy.
And finally there is still no-one in a position to take over the party without a divisive leadership contest. Alan Johnson perhaps could, although his credentials have been burned a little from his firing of a Government scientific advisor last year. One of the Milliband's could, but neither of them are really well known enough. But the most important fact that because there is not one clear challenger, none of the senior cabinet figures want to bring Brown down, based on the old proverb that 'he who wields the knife never wears the crown' - just ask Michael Hesseltine!
All the plotters have done is to undermine the good work the party has done putting the boot into the Tories since the Christmas break. Far from putting the issue to rest, the plotters have managed to make sure the leadership story continues for another week. Stupid.
Tuesday, 5 January 2010
I'm back - with predictions!
Well, the new year has arrived, and with it has arrived a new resolution to dedicate myself a little more to updating this blog. Apologies for falling off the radar... winter does not agree with me!
Anyway, we are in the first week of the new year, and with it comes the usual 'predictions for a new year'. I've been cruising the blogosphere for predictions and some of them (especially from non-Tory bloggers) are often somewhat overly optimistic. For example, the prediction that the Scottish Nationalists will hold the balance of power in Westminster after the election are pretty unlikely.
So, the inevitable predictions for 2010:
1) David Cameron will be Prime Minister after the General Election
2) The election will see the North/South split continue, with Conservatives winning overwhelmingly in the South, London, and the Midlands, while failing to make a major breakthrough in the North (although winning more seats) or Scotland.
3) Gordon Brown will be Labour party leader until the General Election
4) The election will result in a Tory majority government
Moving to international affairs:
5) The Australian Liberal Party will defeat Kevin Rudd's emissions trading scheme bill a third time, which will result in Rudd calling a General Election - which will result in another Labor victory (although with a reduced majority)
6) The US healthcare bill will not pass before February, and the final bill will not contain a public insurance option
7) The Republicans will gain between 3 and 5 seats in the Senate
8) Republicans will take control of the House of Representatives
9) The Mexico City climate change meeting will still not result in binding commitments, mostly due to continued Chinese intransigence
10) The cap and trade bill will not pass the United States Senate
Anyway, we are in the first week of the new year, and with it comes the usual 'predictions for a new year'. I've been cruising the blogosphere for predictions and some of them (especially from non-Tory bloggers) are often somewhat overly optimistic. For example, the prediction that the Scottish Nationalists will hold the balance of power in Westminster after the election are pretty unlikely.
So, the inevitable predictions for 2010:
1) David Cameron will be Prime Minister after the General Election
2) The election will see the North/South split continue, with Conservatives winning overwhelmingly in the South, London, and the Midlands, while failing to make a major breakthrough in the North (although winning more seats) or Scotland.
3) Gordon Brown will be Labour party leader until the General Election
4) The election will result in a Tory majority government
Moving to international affairs:
5) The Australian Liberal Party will defeat Kevin Rudd's emissions trading scheme bill a third time, which will result in Rudd calling a General Election - which will result in another Labor victory (although with a reduced majority)
6) The US healthcare bill will not pass before February, and the final bill will not contain a public insurance option
7) The Republicans will gain between 3 and 5 seats in the Senate
8) Republicans will take control of the House of Representatives
9) The Mexico City climate change meeting will still not result in binding commitments, mostly due to continued Chinese intransigence
10) The cap and trade bill will not pass the United States Senate
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