I'm not usually into conspiracy theories. However, a series of news stories have caught my eye and make me wonder if there might not be more than meets the eye going on. Story one: Growing Power of Lord Mandelson - The series of stories based on this theme has made it clear that Mandelson is effectively deputy Prime Minister (at least), and has vast power in Government. Story two: Labour Government to introduce constitution bill - Sounds boring enough on the surface, except that it contains a provision to allow life peers to give up their peerages (a pre-requisite to being elected to the House of Commons). Story three: Labour delays Glasgow North-East by-election - Labour has refused to name a date for the by-election, leaving open the possibility that it could be held as late as November. Story four: Some discussion in today's Evening Standard (which I rubbished not long ago) that Labour members are talking about a leadership coup in the autumn if Gordon Brown does not improve.
As I say, I'm not a member of the tin foil hat brigade. However, one possible reading of these stories (if you were so inclined) is the following: Lord Mandelson, already the most powerful man in government, intends to use the new Constitution Act to resign from the House of Lords, seek to re-enter the Commons through the Glasgow North-East by-election and then topple Gordon Brown in the late autumn to become de jure Prime Minister. Or, possibly, Lord Mandelson will topple Gordon Brown, THEN fight the Glasgow by-election.
Of course, this is by no means likely. But if it comes to pass, you heard it here first!
Ok, I'll put my hand up and say I got it wrong. The Tories didn't just beat Labour, they destroyed them. The Conservatives overturned a Labour majority of 5,500, and turned it into a Conservative majority of 7000, with a swing of 16.5%. For those who are curious, a swing of 16.5%, if uniform across the country, would deliver the Conservatives a crushing victory in a General Election, with a majority of 218! In other news, UKIP drove the Greens into fifth place and put extreme pressure on the Lib Dems for 3rd place.
Although the turnout was down a long way (down from 61% at the 2005 General Election to 42% yesterday), I think David Cameron and the Conservative Party will be absolutely thrilled with the result. The majority is large enough that the Conservatives could expect to hold the seat at a General Election even if some of those Labour voters who stayed home today come out on polling day (although with a seat like Norwich North the Tories should never ever be complacent about the difficulty of winning).
So, the run-down: Parties who will be happy- Conservatives - Obviously, their candidate won with an enormous swing, and looks set to hold the seat at the next election (excluding some major game-changer that reignites Labour's chances). The turnout, while down, was still good for a by-election, and the Tories certainly didn't suffer as much as the other main parties from 'a plague on all your houses' mentality from voters over the expenses scandal.
UKIP - UKIP will be feeling pretty good, I should think. They pushed the Greens into fifth, and showed a good chance of beating the Liberals Democrats into third. What is particularly interesting is that the UKIP vote increased even as the Tories won the seat. Since UKIP (as a rule) takes votes from the Conservatives, the interesting question is whether UKIP has started stealing Labour and Lib Dem votes as well as Conservative, or whether the underlying 'right-wing' majority is even larger than the result indicates.
Parties who will be unhappy- Everyone else... Ok, seriously. Labour - Obviously. A safe seat has fallen to the Conservatives (by the way, the last time this seat fell to the Tories was in the great Thatcher landslide of 1983), Gordon Brown's response to the expenses scandal has been shown to be a grave error (indications show that many Labour voters stayed home because of their anger over how Dr Ian Gibson, the former MP, had been treated) and Labour's share of the vote has plummeted. I see already that in the Evening Standard Labour MP's are talking about an autumn leadership challenge if he doesn't shape up (yeah right, I'll believe it when I see it!)
Liberal Democrats - They will try to spin it as a turn against all the main parties, but the Lib Dems got hammered, no two ways about it. Their vote total and share of the vote both went down from 2005. The fact they are not picking up seemingly any disenchanted Labour voters in urban seats such as Norwich North will be of deep concern to them.
Greens - The Greens will be a little disappointed in the result. Sure, they are a small party, and no-one expected too much of them, but being pushed into fifth place will hurt. Not least because they are the second largest party on the Norwich City Council, and so might have expected some of that support to move into a Westminster election.
Right, today is the big day. Norwich North is at the polls, deciding on their new Member of Parliament. The big contenders are Chloe Smith (Conservative), Chris Ostrowski (Labour) and April Pond (Liberal Democrat), although of course there are a number of other candidates from the Greens, BNP, UKIP and a couple of Independents (such as Craig Murray, running on a 'Put an Honest Man in Parliament' ticket).
First big thing to keep an eye on is the turnout. It won't be enough for the Tories to win. If they are going to hold the seat next election (not to mention be able to spin the result as a major victory) they need the turnout to be reasonably close to that from the General Election. Why? Because if it isn't it will indicate either that Labour voters decided to stay home, rather than come out and vote for a different party, or that swinging Tory voters are not excited enough by David Cameron and the campaign to come out and cast a vote. To put it another way, a low turnout shows a real lack of energy about any of the major parties, which means that either Labour or the Tories could swing those unenergised voters onto their side before the General Election. However, a high turnout will indicate that voters who happily went into the polling booth and cast a vote for Labour since 1997 have actively decided to cast their vote for another party. And that is VERY bad news for Labour.
Second thing is the scale of the Tory victory (assuming there is one, which everyone appears to be doing). Let's not forget (as many media are doing) the Conservative Party needs a massive swing to even take the seat, let alone get a reasonable majority out of it. The polls are pretty all over the place (although they all project a Tory win). For example, the Daily Telegraph is saying that Labour could get as low as 8% of the vote (well, they would, wouldn't they?), the Liberal Democrats say it is a Lib Dem-Tory race and that Labour will come in third (Con 32% - LD 24% - L 20% - Green 11%), while other projections have the Tories well ahead. I am not so sure. It is possible that the Tories could romp home with a swing similar to that from the Crewe and Nantwich by-election last year. However, I am expecting a more narrow victory for the Tories. Crewe and Nantwich was held during the outrage over the Government's attempts to abolish the lowest tax rate. This one is being held with a more 'a plague on all your houses' view from the public. It could affect all the major parties, or just Labour, or just Labour and the Tories. Anything could happen. That is why by-elections are so exciting!
However, for what it is worth, I'm expecting a Tory victory with a majority between 1000 and 3000 with a turnout a little down (but not a long way down) on the last General Election result.
Ok, I have discovered an important thing. Never rely on your internet. The series of tubes (to steal a phrase from the former Senator from Alaska) was blocked and I've been offline. I'll try to make it up!
So, I am back, refreshed, after a couple of weeks holiday. And I'm highly excited about the upcoming by-election in Norwich North. This by-election will set the tone for the next month at least, and could have a very serious effect on one party (and you might be surprised by which one it is!).
First the background. Norwich North is a seat that was once a safe as houses Labour seat (in the 1950's and 60's the seat returned Labour with 60% of the vote) that has moved towards being more contestable. With the rise of the Liberals and the Liberal Democrats in the 1970's and 80's the seat has become much more marginal. With the help of the SDP/Liberals in in 1983, it fell to the Conservatives with an almost offensively large swing. The Tories then held it until their own defeat in 1997, and Labour has held the seat safely since. Ian Gibson, the former MP, was deeply embroiled in the expenses saga, and was barred from standing in the seat under the Labour banner in the next election by the Labour disciplinary panel. In response he resigned his seat and triggered this by-election. He will not stand as an independent.
So, Labour currently holds the seat with a majority of 5459. However, this is a by-election the Tories must win. They have no other option. Norwich North is symptomatic of the seats that the Tories need to win on election night in order to win an overall majority. And things almost cannot get better for the Tories than this, with a government seemingly without a plan or agenda, and an almost 20% advantage in opinion polls. Allegedly, Labour has given up, but the Tories must not be over-confident. And, to be fair, so far they have been anything but. Buses of supporters and party members have been bused in from all over the South East to help the hugely competent Conservative candidate, Chloe Smith. And, judging on what one hears, she seems set to be the next MP for Norwich North, and provide a huge fillip to the party faithful.
However, if the Tories do manage to lose, it will be a serious blow. First, it will show that they still aren't able to reach into Labour's more urban support bases. If a defeat in Norwich were magnified across the areas the Tories need to win, then they would be hard pressed to be the biggest party, let alone hold an overall majority. Second, it would entirely upset the seeming triumphal processional that seems to be winding its way towards election day.
Two other things to watch out for. The result for the Liberal Democrats will be highly interesting. They are historically the party that people turn to in order to blow off steam at the party in power in by-elections. The Lib Dems could make a serious push for the seat, and this could see Labour pushed into third. If the Lib Dems do not increase their share of the vote by a significant amount, it could lead to some spectulation about the position of their leader, Nick Clegg - especially since at the time of the leadership election the campaign of Chris Huhne, his opponent, wrote a memo describing Mr Clegg as 'Calamity Clegg'. The other point of interest might be the effect a really serious defeat might have on Labour. A second place finish, within a five percentage points, is probably what many in Labour might expect. If the Lib Dems could force themselves into second (which would probably require them to double their share of the vote) and consign Labour to third place, it may start some backbenchers in Labour worrying about the safety of their seats - even reasonably safe ones.
So, the short version is:
Conservatives - Best result: They win by anything more 5%, and the Labour is pushed into third Acceptable result: They win by any margain - a swing of about 8.3% Bad result: They lose
Labour - Best result: They somehow manage to win Acceptable result: They lose by a small amounht Bad result: They lose by a huge amount (more than 9%) or are pushed into third
Liberal Democrats - Best result: Well, obviously the best result is to win, but that is so unlikely, I will say it is to get second place Acceptable result: Third place with an increase of the vote - at least 20% Bad result: No real increase in the vote
